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2018 Atlantic hurricane season (Money Hurricane)
Seasonal forecasts Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:800 height:225 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/03/2018 till:01/12/2018 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/04/2018 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0-62_km/h)_(TD) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117 km/h)_(TS) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(119–153_km/h)_(C1) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-130_mph_(178-209-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131-155_mph_(210-249_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_>=156_mph_(>=250_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:01/03/2018 till:03/03/2018 color:TD text:One (SD) from:19/05/2018 till:21/05/2018 color:TS text:Alberto (TS) from:01/06/2018 till:08/06/2018 color:C1 text:Beryl (C1) from:25/06/2018 till:29/06/2018 color:TS text:Chris (TS) from:05/07/2018 till:08/07/2018 color:TS text:Debby (TS) from:11/07/2018 till:19/07/2018 color:C3 text:Ernesto (C3) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/03/2018 till:01/04/2018 text:March from:01/04/2018 till:01/05/2018 text:April from:01/05/2018 till:01/06/2018 text:May from:01/06/2018 till:01/07/2018 text:June from:01/07/2018 till:01/08/2018 text:July from:01/08/2018 till:01/09/2018 text:August from:01/09/2018 till:01/10/2018 text:September from:01/10/2018 till:01/11/2018 text:October from:01/11/2018 till:01/12/2018 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale)" The first cyclone developed three months before the official start of the hurricane season. The remnants of a winter storm that had dropped heavy snow on Texas moved over Florida and into the warming waters of the Gulf Stream, eventually acquiring subtropical characteristics. The short lived depression, One, made landfall in extreme southern Virginia. However, the hardest hit areas were Ohio, Michigan, and other states that surrounded the Great Lakes, which saw widespread reports of 50+ inches of snow and extreme blizzard conditions for upwards of 48 hours as a result of the extratropical cyclone that developed from One's remnants. Two months later, another pre-season tropical system began to take shape in the Gulf of Mexico. It soon became a tropical storm and was named Alberto, before hitting the southeastern United States the same day with heavy rain and gusty winds. The season officially began on June 1, although 2 systems had developed by then. By the end of the day, Tropical Depression Three developed near Honduras. The depression later became an extraordinary early-June hurricane, achieving the title on June 5 when it was designated as Hurricane Beryl. The hurricane went on to hit Louisiana as a tropical storm a day later, causing moderate damage. Torwards the end of the month, Tropical Storm Chris trekked across the Caribbean. The cyclone caused significant flooding in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala as it moved inland into Central America. The month of July kicked off on July 5 with the formation of Tropical Storm Debby. The storm struggled with dry air over the central Atlantic for the vast majority of its lifetime, but the compact nature of the tropical storm allowed it to make it to 50 mph (85 km/h). After peaking, Debby quickly succumbed to dry air from the Saharan Air Layer which is known for dominating the month. Following Debby was another tropical wave, which would go on to become Ernesto while north of the Lesser Antilles. Ernesto spent several days as a tropical storm before rapidly intensifying as it turned northward. The storm made landfall in North Carolina as a category 3 hurricane, becoming the first to do so since Hurricane Fran in 1996. Ernesto caused extensive damage in the United States, which added to the already large damage and death toll as a result of torrential rainfall in Hispaniola. The total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, as of Debby's last advisory, is 8.1350 units. Systems Subtropical Depression One The first sign of a possible preseason storm appeared a week before the actual formation of the depression. A disorganized cloud mass associated with a frontal boundary and with the remains of a winter system entered the Gulf of Mexico in late February. It swiftly crossed the Gulf, weakening along the way due to unfavorable conditions. As it made landfall in Florida, the National Hurricane Center in Miami began monitoring the system for any suspicious activity. The system brought minor flooding and periods of strong winds, sometimes gusting above tropical storm force, but was largely disorganized. Weakening further along the way, it turned sharply to the northeast as it exited Florida into the warmer waters of the coastal Atlantic. Under the influence of a ridge, it moved into an area of lower wind shear as it neared the East Coast once again. Quite unexpectedly, a well defined area of low pressure developed, and shortly after the system acquired an asymmetrical warm-core circulation. Finally, as it detached from the parent front, the NHC began issuing advisories on March 1 for Subtropical Depression One, located south of North Carolina. The young depression paralleled the barrier islands of the state, peaking at 15:00 UTC (11 AM local time) on March 2 with winds of 35 mph (55 km/h). After peak, One turned to the northwest and crossed onto land just miles north of the North Carolina-Virginia state border and got entangled with another extratropical cyclone, effectively turning it non-tropical. The last advisory by the NHC was issued in the early morning hours of March 3 as Subtropical Depression One rapidly became indistinguishable over the West Virginian Appalachians. As the extratropical cyclone weakened, the old low collapsed and the remnant circulation of One emerged as the dominant low. The following day, the extratropical cyclone moved over Lake Huron and crossed onto land in the Northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan. On March 5, the storm underwent a staggering bombogenesis. The winds at the core increasing from 60 to 90 mph and the pressure dropped from 995 to 969 in just 24 hours. Completing a loop, the storm once again hit Michigan, this time in the south. Later on, observations on March 6 in Toledo, Ohio, at 15:00 UTC indicated that winds had reached 100 mph. Racing over Lake Erie, the winds began to relax as the center headed into Upstate New York. 36 hours after reaching peak intensity as an extratropical cyclone, the system was absorbed by a large Arctic front that swept over Northern Canada. One was a nuisance for most of the Southeast, triggering some unneeded voluntary evacuations on the Outer Banks. In the Midwest, on the other hand, impacts were considered "catastrophic" by some. Before the storm arrived, the governors of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York declared state of emergencies for their states. Apon arrival of the powerful system, extreme winds caused many homes to sustain significant damage to rooftops and windows. An unidentified vessel capsized over Lake Michigan, killing 5. Most skyscrapers in Toledo, Detroit, Cleveland and other cities sustained damage on their upper levels. Up to 50 inches of heavy, wet snow fell over a widespread region of Michigan and Ohio, further exacerbating the problem and causing roof collapses in hundreds of homes. Also, the category 2-equivalent winds caused the snow to clump together, turning it into a dangerous projectile that caused many injuries. After the winter storm passed, President Trump declared the region as a Federal Disaster Area, allowing federal funding to be utilized by those effected. Damage is estimated to be nearly $7 billion (2018 USD) and over 50 deaths are attributed to the extratropical cyclone in the United States alone. The eastern provinces of Ontario and Quebec were also affected, but a warm air mass caused most of the snow to turn into sleet. As a result most of the indirect deaths from the remnants of One came from Canada in the form of numerous traffic accidents. Tropical Storm Alberto A pattern featuring a frontal boundary began to set up over the Gulf of Mexico by the third week of May. During the time of year, the setup was the usual cause of tropical cyclone formation in the region. Hence, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring the surface low as it moved erratically southward. By May 17, the main front retreated north, leaving the weak low behind. It was becoming clear that a tropical system was likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico; conditions were conducive for thunderstorm organization. Taking advantage of this, the low, dubbed Invest 91L, quickly consolidated a closed circulation and was designated as Tropical Depression Two at 15:00 UTC on May 19. Through the afternoon, the depression moved sharply northeast. By early evening, however, Two began moving on a more gradual northeastward path, as it was already beginning to slightly interact with the frontal boundary from which it had come from. Subsequently, this caused the system to speed up torwards Florida. Two became increasingly messy-looking on satellite, but still managed to strengthen to the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the winds at the center have increased to approximately 40 mph (65 km/h), and an hour later the NHC officially declared the naming of Tropical Storm Alberto, coincidentally 24 hours after the original formation of Two. Alberto raced to landfall in Florida and crossed onto land at 21:00 UTC, May 20, north of the small coastal community of Yankeetown in Waccasassa Bay Preserve State Park. At the time of landfall, the storm peaked at 45 mph (75 km/h) with a central pressure of 1004 mbar. Alberto crossed the Floridian peninsula in a mere 6 hours, weakening along the way due to land interaction. After briefly entering the coastal Atlantic waters, Alberto made landfall again near Charleston, South Carolina and was designated post-tropical less than an hour later at 09:00 UTC on May 21. Impact from Tropical Storm Alberto was rated relatively minimal. The storm was a nuisance for Northern Florida, causing many businesses and schools across the region to close. Damage was not significant, and only 2 fatalities were reported as a result of the storm. Hurricane Beryl An area of disturbed weather in the far Southwestern Caribbean was first noticed by the NHC on May 28. The system was large and disorganized, and at first development was not expected. However, by May 30, the structure had improved greatly, and a day later a surface and mid-circulation emerged in alignment, but lacked clarity. At 21:00 UTC on May 31, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three in response to Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings issued by the Nicaraguan and Honduran governments. It did not take long for Three to evolve into a tropical cyclone, and the transition was completed at 21:00 UTC on the first day of Atlantic hurricane season, June 1. Now known as Tropical Depression Three, it skirted the coast of Honduras without making landfall. Moving on to the warm waters of the Western Caribbean, the depression soon intensified to a tropical storm and was named Beryl at 09:00 UTC on June 2. The budding tropical storm strengthened all the way up to landfall in a rural region of the Yucatán Peninsula, in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Prior to landfall, the storm reached peaked with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h). Although the area was relatively flat, Beryl's structure was heavily affected by land interaction, quickly degrading to a tropical depression once again. Tropical Depression Beryl emerged into the Gulf of Mexico in the early morning hours of June 3, north-northwest of the city of Mérida, the capital of Yucatán state. The 31°C (88°F) SSTs allowed re-strengthening to commence, and only 9 hours after exiting the peninsula, a Hurricane Hunter plane identified tropical storm-force winds of about 40 mph (65 km/h) in the eastern quadrants of Beryl, and the depression was upgraded to a tropical storm accordingly at 21:00 UTC. Favorable wind shear and abundant moisture allowed Tropical Storm Beryl to gradually intensify throughout the day on June 4. By 03:00 UTC on the 5th, winds had reached strong tropical storm force. Hurricane Watches were issued for eastern Texas and western Louisiana, which were soon changed to Hurricane Warnings when the NHC declared Beryl a hurricane at 09:00 UTC on June 5, with winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). That same day, Hurricane Beryl peaked with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h); the minimum central pressure bottomed out at 989 mbar. A ragged eye briefly appeared on infrared satellite imagery, before disappearing due to an approaching cold front. The front caused the storm to turn sharply to the east-northeast, and subsequent weakening followed as a result of increasing wind shear. The hurricane warnings were canceled and replaced with tropical storm warnings when Beryl lost hurricane status in the overnight hours of June 6. The tropical storm made two landfalls in a span of two hours, coming ashore in an uninhabited area of Louisiana close to Marsh Island, crossing Vermilion Bay, and making a second landfall south of Avery Island between 16:30 UTC and 18:30 UTC (11:30 AM and 1:30 PM local time). At both landfalls, the tropical storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a pressure of 995 mbar. After coming onshore, the winds quickly decreased and Beryl weakened to a tropical depression at 09:00 UTC on the 7th of June. 24 hours later, the depression lost tropical characteristics over the central US and the last advisory was issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), which had been issuing advisories on Beryl since 15:00 UTC the previous day. The post-tropical remnants turned northeast before being absorbed by a front over Lake Huron. Despite hitting multiple land areas, finalized damages were lower than expected, at only $256 million (2018 USD). Heavy rainfall caused several deaths in Nicaragua and Honduras; the culprits for most deaths were deemed to be landslides. In the United States, there were 3 reported fatalities, all in Louisiana, as a result of a EF1 tornado that ripped through the outskirts of mobile home park in Gonzalez, Louisiana, a town southeast of Baton Rouge. The total number of reported fatalities from Beryl, both direct and indirect, was 13. Tropical Storm Chris An African Easterly Wave emerged off the coast of Africa in mid-June. Although most of these waves did not manage to survive until late July, the wave that later became Chris managed to cross central Atlantic despite the dry air that was coming off the Sahara Desert. As the wave neared the Leeward Islands, the NHC began sending reconnaissance to investigate the state of the system. On the first few flights, dropsonde data from the aircrafts showed that the center was choked with dry air, which was inhibiting development. With time, progressively more moisture began entering the wave, and thunderstorms began to sprout around the low pressure area. It crossed over the French territory of Martinique and entered the eastern Caribbean. Organization quickly increased shortly thereafter, and at 03:00 UTC on June 25 the birth of Tropical Depression Four was confirmed by the NHC. The young depression turned on a southwesterly course, directly passing over some of the warmest waters in the sea. This, paired with abundant atmospheric moisture and generally low vertical wind shear propelled Four to reach tropical storm status 18 hours later at 21:00 UTC and be named Chris. At the time, the small windfield of the cyclone had 40 mph (65 km/h) winds which extended roughly 25 miles from the center, while the estimated barometric pressure was 1006 millibars. After being named, Chris returned to a westward motion, sparing South America and neighboring island territories from direct impact. The new tropical storm gradually intensified throughout the following day, and by mid-day on June 27 it had developed well defined banding features. Chris peaked at 09:00 UTC that day when several recon aircrafts found a ragged eye feature with a central pressure of 992 millibars paired with winds around 60 mph (95 km/h). However, the eye-like feature did not last long as dry air coming from South America invaded the circulation, and it vanished off microwave imagery, signaling weakening. This quickly became more apparent when the center became exposed the next morning as Chris sped torwards landfall. At 03:00 UTC on June 29, Chris hobbled ashore into a rural area of Honduras just north of the Honduran-Nicaraguan border. By then, the maximum sustained winds were already down to 40 mph (65 km/h); minimal tropical storm strength. Over land, the disorganized cyclone quickly disintegrated, and by 21:00 UTC that day Chris became indistinguishable as it was absorbed by a large gyre that was centered in the Bay of Campeche. Damage from Chris was primarily the result of torrential rainfall and mudslides in mountainous regions. Due to the relatively small size of the storm, significant impacts were limited to northern Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. However, in those areas, multiple people perished as a result of flooding. Some isolated communities found themselves completely cut off from the outside world as most bridges were washed out. In the following weeks, it is estimated another 15+ people died as a result of lack of aid. In total, up to 30+ people lost their lives and $450 million in property damage was reported. Tropical Storm Debby One of the first robust tropical waves of the Cape Verde season exited the coast of Africa at the start of July. It brought sporadic rain showers to the Cape Verde islands. The NHC took interest in the wave as it battled dry air, and marked it with a low chance of tropical formation. Conditions gradually improved as the wave moved westward into the central tropical Atlantic. Chances were increased shortly after as the disturbance continued to come together. By 09:00 UTC, the probability of cyclone formation was raised by the center to 90% in the next 48 hours, citing the "increasing organization and convection" surrounding the open low pressure. A Global Hawk unmanned aircraft was sent out to investigate the system and data that was reported 12 hours later indicated a forming tropical depression. Hence, the NHC initiated advisories on the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Depression Five at 21:00 UTC. The area that Five was in was relatively favorable, allowing it to slowly strengthen as it moved due northwest. The cyclone spent another 30 hours as a depression until it finally became a tropical storm at 03:00 UTC on July 7, being named Debby. Upon classification, Debby had winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a pressure of 1005 mbar. The convection continued to coalesce throughout the day, and by 15:00 UTC the tropical storm peaked with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h); the pressure dropped to 1003 mbar. Shortly after, dry air began to pour into the circulation as Debby entered a plume of hostile Saharan dust. The integrity of the storm quickly degraded, and at 03:00 UTC on the 8th satellite estimates indicated that Debby had weakened to a tropical depression. A brief burst of convection associated with Diurnal Maximum (DMAX) allowed Debby to come back as a tropical storm, before once more becoming a weak and disorganized tropical depression 6 hours later. The NHC declared Debby a remnant low at 21:00 UTC on July 8 as all strong thunderstorm activity rapidly withered away. Hurricane Ernesto Following Debby's precursor, another tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean shortly after. As Debby moved northwest and later dissipated, the disturbance proceeded in a westerly direction. Dry air eventually subsided as the low neared the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center began dispatching Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate the system around midday on July 10. Several missions failed to find an entirely closed circulation, but it was noted that it was getting better defined over time. Finally, a closed center was found by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system at 09:00 UTC the following day. The NHC promptly initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Six and issued tropical storm watches for the northernmost islands in the Antilles chain. However, the depression passed safely to the north, and the alerts were soon discontinued. Another aircraft investigated the tropical depression on July 12 at 15:00 UTC and found winds of minimal tropical storm intensity, and Six was then named Ernesto. The now tropical storm brushed the Leewards and Puerto Rico with no significant impacts, but turned southward towards Hispaniola under the influence of a ridge. At the same time, Ernesto began to slow down as it gradually strengthened over the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic. Rainfall forecasts began to rapidly increase for the economically poor island, and massive damage and loss of life was expected due to excessive rainfall that could cause floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous regions. Ernesto came closest to the island on July 14 as a mid-grade tropical storm with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h). Throughout the day, Ernesto unleashed large amounts of rain while also slowly becoming disorganized as its core was disrupted by land. Re-intensification commenced as Ernesto began to move away from the hilly terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti and through the islands of the Turks & Caicos. The tropical storm began to strengthen quicker as it entered the coastal waters of The Bahamas, and at 21:00 UTC on July 15 winds of category 1 hurricane force were observed by a vessel as Ernesto made one of multiple Bahamian landfalls on Crooked Island. At the time of the observation, Ernesto had winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). Over the following day, the hurricane continued to intensify as it curved to the north, subsequently coming very close to Long Island and Great Exuma, and finally exiting the Bahamian archipelago after making its last landfall on the island of Eleuthera. After doing so, Ernesto was found to be a category 2 as it passed by Great Abaco and Grand Bahama, the northernmost islands of The Bahamas. A brief period of quick strengthening began early on July 17, leading to another probe at 09:00 UTC into the storm finding that maximum sustained winds had increased to 115 mph (185 km/h); major hurricane strength. The barometric pressure measured inside the eye reached a minimum low of 968 millibars. The pressure began to rise again as Ernesto headed north, signaling that the hurricane has peaked, but the winds had not yet come down. Hurricane warnings were quickly put in effect for the entire coastline of North Carolina and areas in extreme southern Virginia, and the Outer Banks were placed under a mandatory evacuation. The center came ashore not long after 15:00 UTC on an uninhabited area of the Outer Banks barrier island chain, crossed Core Sound, and made a second landfall in the town of Atlantic, North Carolina. Both landfalls were made while Ernesto was still at category 3 strength. The hurricane weakened to a category 2 as it crossed Pamlico Sound and made its final landfall east of the small town of Belhaven, North Carolina at 21:00 UTC on July 18. After landfall, Ernesto gradually lost tropical characteristics and was officially declared post-tropical at 21:00 UTC the following day. However, the large extratropical remnant continued to be nuisance for the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest for the next several days, before finally moving into Canada on July 21. Storm names The following names were used for named storms in the North Atlantic in 2018. This is the same list used in the 2012 season with the exception of Sara, which replaced Sandy. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. Season effects This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD. Footnotes The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at 2018 Atlantic hurricane season (Money Hurricane)/ACE Calcs. Category:Hypothetical Hurricanes Category:Hypothetical Hurricanes Pages Category:Hypothetical Hurricane Seasons Category:Cyclones Category:Atlantic hurricane season Category:2018 Atlantic hurricane season Category:Money Hurricane